FIRE Planning
Coast FIRE, Monte Carlo simulation, safe withdrawal rates, and the math of financial independence.
5 articles
One More Year: The Math Behind Working Longer
Each extra year of work adds three things. The first year shifts a 90% success rate to 94-95%. The fifth year barely moves the needle — here's where your personal curve breaks.
Coast FIRE Calculator: When Can You Stop Saving?
Coast FIRE is the point where your existing investments will grow to cover retirement without additional contributions. Here's how to calculate yours.
FIRE number calculator - what the formula misses
Annual expenses × 25 is the napkin formula for your FIRE number. After taxes, time horizon, and healthcare adjustments, the real number runs 25-40% higher.
The 4% Rule Is Wrong: What Monte Carlo Shows
The 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements. Monte Carlo simulation shows a 15-20% failure rate over 50 years. Here's what actually works for early retirees.
How Much Do I Need to Retire? A Tax-Accurate Answer
The 25x rule ignores taxes. A single filer spending $60K/year needs $1.65-1.84M from a Traditional 401(k) — not $1.5M. Here's the real math.