FIRE Planning

Coast FIRE, Monte Carlo simulation, safe withdrawal rates, and the math of financial independence.

3 articles

Chart showing withdrawal rate failure probabilities over 30, 40, and 50 year retirement horizons
FIRE Planning

The 4% Rule Is Wrong: What Monte Carlo Shows

The 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements. Monte Carlo simulation shows a 15-20% failure rate over 50 years. Here's what actually works for early retirees.

12 min read
A figure at the base of a mountain gazing up at a torii gate on the summit with a winding switchback path representing the retirement savings journey
FIRE Planning

How Much Do I Need to Retire? A Tax-Accurate Answer

The 25x rule ignores taxes. A single filer spending $60K/year needs $1.65-1.84M from a Traditional 401(k) — not $1.5M. Here's the real math.

11 min read
A sailboat with furled sails drifting on calm teal water toward a distant mountain, representing Coast FIRE — letting compound growth carry you to retirement
FIRE Planning

Coast FIRE Calculator: When Can You Stop Saving?

Coast FIRE is the point where your existing investments will grow to cover retirement without additional contributions. Here's how to calculate yours.

10 min read
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